Unstable Diplomacy in Beijing
Washington and Beijing are once again at the center of international politics. The meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s Head of State and Party, Xi Jinping, once again revealed the contradictory relationship between the two great powers: demonstrative courtesy before the cameras and, at the same time, deep strategic differences behind closed doors. The talks in Beijing made it clear that relations between the United States and China remain marked by mutual distrust, despite economic ties and diplomatic efforts.
The trade issues were at the center of the discussions. The US side has been pressing for years to reduce the trade deficit and achieve better conditions for American companies in the Chinese market. Beijing showed willingness to buy more agricultural products and American aircraft. Such promises traditionally serve Washington as a visible success in bilateral negotiations. However, the structural points of friction remain unresolved. These include, in particular, intellectual property protection, state subsidies to Chinese companies, and forced technology transfer, which Western companies have long criticized.
Precisely these issues strike at the core of geopolitical competition. The United States increasingly views China’s technological rise as a strategic challenge. Areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor production, and telecommunications have long ceased to be merely economic fields and have become part of a comprehensive power competition. As a result, Washington has tightened its export controls and is simultaneously trying to make international supply chains less dependent on China.
The issue of Taiwan is even more sensitive. During the meeting, Xi Jinping made it clear and unequivocal that Beijing considers any support for Taiwan’s independence aspirations as a direct provocation. For the Chinese leadership, Taiwan is not a matter of foreign policy, but a central part of national sovereignty. The United States, for its part, officially maintains the One China policy, although it supports Taiwan militarily and politically. This strategic ambivalence creates a constant source of tensions with a high potential for escalation.
The current conflicts are part of a long historical tradition. Since Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, phases of close cooperation and strong confrontation have alternated. After the end of the Cold War, many Western governments hoped that China’s economic opening would lead to long-term political liberalization. Instead, under Xi Jinping, China has evolved into an authoritarian and self-confident power center with global influence ambitions.
At the same time, mutual interdependence remains enormous. China is one of the most important trading partners of the United States, while US technology and financial markets remain relevant to the Chinese economy. Precisely because of this, diplomacy between the two countries resembles a constant balancing act between cooperation and rivalry.
The meeting in Beijing shows above all one thing: despite all tensions, neither Washington nor Beijing can do without stable communication channels. The economic interests are too great, and misunderstandings regarding security would be too dangerous. But it is also clear that the fundamental conflict between the two powers does not disappear. It will probably continue to shape the international order for years to come.
Gulf States in a Shadow War Against Iran — in the Shadow of US Military Attacks
The recent U.S. military operations against Iranian targets are profoundly changing the strategic architecture of the Middle East. According to U.S. security circles, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have begun supporting or conducting covert operations on Iranian territory. What was long considered unofficial security cooperation behind the scenes is increasingly becoming the open formation of a regional front against Tehran.
The trigger for the new dynamic is the massive U.S. air and maritime strikes against Iranian military infrastructure in recent weeks. The United States has repeatedly attacked Revolutionary Guard targets, as well as naval positions and Iranian missile installations, while simultaneously intensifying its presence in the Persian Gulf. Washington justifies the operations by attacks from Iran-backed militias against U.S. bases and international maritime routes. Especially the Strait of Hormuz has once again become a geopolitical flashpoint.
The consequences of this U.S. military strategy go far beyond the immediate battles. In the Gulf monarchies, the conviction is growing that the regional balance of power is shifting in favor of a tougher containment of Iran. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates appear to see the opportunity to weaken Iranian capabilities without having to officially declare an open war.
It is not just about military deterrence. For years, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have accused Iran of building zones of influence through a network of Shia militias from Iraq to Yemen. The Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure already showed in 2019 how vulnerable the Gulf States’ infrastructure is. Now the political threshold for direct retaliatory measures seems to have been considerably lowered.
Observers suspect that the alleged secret operations could include cyberattacks, acts of sabotage, or targeted reconnaissance missions. A closer security coordination with Israel is also considered likely. The rapprochement between Israel and several Arab states since the Abraham Accords has led behind the scenes to new security networks whose importance is now becoming evident.
At the same time, the risk of an uncontrollable escalation is increasing. Despite the US attacks, Iran still has missiles, drones, and proxy group structures throughout the region. Tehran could try to respond through allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon, or Yemen. In particular, the energy supply and international trade routes in the Gulf remain vulnerable.
Thus, the conflict is increasingly transforming from a regional power struggle into a broader strategic confrontation, in which local actors operate with greater autonomy than just a few years ago. The US military attacks have not only altered Iran’s room for maneuver but also the willingness of its Arab rivals to act more offensively.
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