Noodles, coffee, mustard, flour… For several months, French consumers have been observing rising food prices, and this trend currently seems to be accelerating.
The recent months’ increase in food prices is mainly related to problems caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The pandemic has led to higher raw material prices as well as transportation and packaging costs, retailers report.
However, the rise in dried fruit prices is related to adverse weather. Frost last year damaged fruit cultivation in France, reducing the harvest. The price increase of noodles and coarse flour is due to Canada’s poor harvest last year—Canada being the largest producer of durum wheat.
The foods most affected by inflation are noodles, whose prices have risen 14% since last March. This is not only due to the increase in wheat prices but also because of the rise in packaging material costs. The price of pulp, used to manufacture cardboard, has also increased significantly. Next is mustard, which rose 8%, due to the price increase of sunflower oil used in production by 7.4%.
Worried about supply shortages?
No, the current supermarket shelf shortages are entirely due to consumer behavior. Empty shelves are the result of consumer panic. Under the current situation, consumers tend to buy in bulk, which sometimes leads to temporary store shortages until restocking is completed.
Experts believe food inflation will persist. The war in Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in energy prices, and these costs have been factored into commodity prices. Producers require significant energy for product manufacturing, transportation, and other processes. Another reason for price increases is that the prices of certain products are currently based on last year’s Ukrainian and Russian grain export prices; the current geopolitical environment will gradually be reflected in consumer prices in the future. Ukraine is making efforts to maintain wheat and corn cultivation, but the war may make harvesting and transportation difficult.
Given that three-quarters of global sunflower seed production comes from Russia and Ukraine, very noticeable tensions may arise. Russia and Ukraine are also important global producers of wheat for animal feed. Therefore, the prices of grains used for calf, dairy cow, and pig feed are likely to rise. This, in turn, will force livestock farmers to increase the prices of meat products. Ukraine is also an important producer of fertilizer and an exporter of chicken meat.