Pasta, coffee, mustard, flour… For several months, French consumers have been noticing a rise in food prices, which now seems to be accelerating.
The price increase observed for several months in the food sector is mainly related to the issues of the global coronavirus crisis. Due to the pandemic, the prices of raw materials as well as transportation and packaging costs have risen, reports the retail trade.
However, the rise in prices of dried fruits is linked to bad weather. Frost damaged fruit crops in France last year, reducing yields. The increase in prices for pasta and semolina is due to Canada, the largest producer of durum wheat, having a poor harvest last year.
The food products most affected by inflation are pasta, whose price has risen by 14% since last March. This increase is not only explained by the rise in wheat prices but also by that of packaging. The price of pulp, used to make cardboard, has also risen sharply. In second place is mustard, +8%, notably due to a 7.4% increase in the price of sunflower oil used in its production.
Should we fear a shortage?
No: currently, it is only consumer behavior that causes stockouts on supermarket shelves. The emptied shelves are the result of consumers’ fears. In the current situation, they tend to buy more, which sometimes leads to temporary shortages in stores until products are restocked.
Experts believe that inflation on food products will continue. The war in Ukraine is causing a sharp increase in energy prices, which is reflected in the prices of products sold in commerce. Manufacturers need energy for the production of products, their transportation, and so on. Another reason for an upcoming price increase is the following: current prices of some products have been calculated based on last year’s export prices of Ukrainian and Russian cereals. The current geopolitical context will impact consumer prices later. Although Ukraine is doing everything to continue sowing wheat and corn, the war could complicate harvesting and transportation.
Comme les trois quarts de la production mondiale de tournesol proviennent de Russie et d’Ukraine, des tensions très sensibles pourraient apparaître. La Russie et l’Ukraine comptent parmi les principaux producteurs mondiaux de blé destiné à l’alimentation animale. Il est donc très probable que les céréales utilisées pour nourrir veaux, vaches et porcs deviennent plus coûteuses. Ce qui conduit à son tour les producteurs à vendre leurs produits carnés à des prix plus élevés. L’Ukraine est également un producteur important d’engrais et un exportateur de poulets.