IEA Lowers Forecast for Global Oil Demand in 2026 Due to Conflicts in the Middle East

Paris – 17.06.2026: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 1.1 million barrels per day. This corresponds to nearly a threefold increase in the expected reduction compared to estimates from May. The cause of this adjustment is the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the military confrontations between the USA, Israel, and Iran.

The IEA now projects an average daily oil demand of 104.26 million barrels in 2026, compared to 104.34 million barrels in 2025. This means a decline of 80,000 barrels per day compared to the previous year. The cause of this adjustment is the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, especially the military confrontations between the USA, Israel, and Iran.

The IEA described the current situation as the “worst oil supply shock in history” and pointed to a loss of 10 million barrels per day in March. This dramatic decrease is due to the military conflicts in the Middle East, which have led to significant disruptions in global oil supply.

In May, the IEA had forecast a smaller reduction in oil demand. The current adjustment reflects the escalating geopolitical tensions and their impact on global energy markets. The IEA emphasized that the uncertainties in the Middle East will continue to influence oil prices and supply security.

This development also affects global oil prices, which have risen in recent months due to geopolitical tensions. Analysts warn of further price increases should the Middle East conflicts continue or worsen. The IEA advises member countries to adjust their energy strategies accordingly to meet the challenges of the current situation.

The IEA will continue to closely monitor the situation and update its forecasts accordingly to provide member countries with current and accurate information. Given the dynamic geopolitical situation, continuous adjustment of forecasts is necessary to respond to rapidly changing market conditions.

The IEA stressed the need for enhanced international cooperation to minimize the effects of the current conflicts on energy markets and ensure global energy supply security. Additionally, it recommends increased investment in renewable energies to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enhance the resilience of energy systems.

In conclusion, the IEA underlined the importance of a proactive and coordinated response by the international community to overcome the challenges of the current geopolitical tensions and to secure a stable and sustainable energy supply for the future.