Iran has asserted itself - correspondent sees Tehran at an advantage after recent conflict

Paris – 02.07.2026: Tehran had politically and militarily prevailed in the recent regional war – this assessment was given by Siavosh Ghazi, Iran correspondent for France 24 and RFI, on Thursday morning on Franceinfo’s program. According to him, Tehran withstood pressure from Israel and the United States and ultimately helped shape the terms of a ceasefire. The leadership, Ghazi said, claims a robust deterrent and an improved position vis-à-vis opponents and mediators.

Ghazi pointed out that Iranian decision-makers see the next steps as closely interlinked between military restraint and diplomacy. As a possible time window for new formal talks with the United States he named the period after the official mourning ceremonies for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Until then the focus, he said in effect, remains on internal power discipline and coordination with allies in the region. No specific negotiation points were named in the interview; however, classic dossiers such as sanctions relief, regional de-escalation and nuclear transparency measures are on the table.

The correspondent’s assessment aligns with reports that Tehran was able to consolidate its ties to non-state partners while keeping channels open to international mediators. At the same time it remains unclear how durable the current ceasefire is. Proxy attacks, rocket and drone activities and border incidents had repeatedly heated the conflict in recent months. Observers point out that even smaller violations could quickly tip the fragile situation — with immediate consequences for sea lanes, energy prices and security on Israel’s northern border.

Much is at stake for Washington and European capitals: any prospect of talks between Tehran and the United States would affect efforts on prisoner exchanges, humanitarian access and nuclear monitoring mechanisms. At the same time regional mediators — among them states on the Persian Gulf — are seeking ways to stabilize economic contacts and defuse escalation mechanisms. France has repeatedly urged restraint and stressed the importance of a coordinated diplomatic format.

Independent of tactical gains on the ground or symbolic actions, what remains central is whether the parties to the conflict clearly delineate their respective red lines. Ghazi’s assessment that Iran is strengthened reflects a perception in parts of the region, but it is not an official appraisal by Western governments. The decisive question will be whether, after the mourning ceremonies, there actually is a structured process of talks — and whether this would go beyond temporary quiet agreements to verifiable security guarantees and regional de-escalation steps.