In recent days, numerous weather maps on social networks have caused a stir. They spoke of an extreme heatwave with temperatures of up to 45 degrees Celsius across large parts of France. The short answer, however, is: No. According to the current state of weather forecasts, a widespread reaching of such high values is not considered likely.
What is certain, however, is that France has again been hit by a pronounced heatwave since the beginning of the week. Meteorologists expect an intense period of heat that will gradually spread across large parts of the country. Temperatures will rise in many places to between 37 and 41 degrees Celsius, especially in the south and in central regions.
The origin of the 45-degree reports lies in weather models that were shared on the internet days earlier. Such models calculate various possible weather developments and do not provide definitive forecasts. As early as the end of June, weather experts had warned that this extreme scenario should be viewed with great caution.
In the meantime, current forecasts paint a much clearer picture. The heat is indeed unusually intense, but remains below the record values feared earlier. To make matters worse, the nights bring barely any cooling. Low temperatures between 20 and 25 degrees mean that buildings and soils lose little heat. This significantly increases the physical strain, especially for the elderly, children and people with health issues.
According to current assessments, the heatwave is likely to last until mid-month. With each additional hot day, the risk of forest and wildfires increases. At the same time, the strain on agriculture, nature and the energy supply rises. Many regions are therefore preparing for sustained high temperatures.
Meteorologists do not completely rule out temperatures of 45 degrees, but only in very limited areas and under exceptional conditions. For the vast majority of France, this scenario is not currently considered a reference forecast. Several weather experts therefore criticized the claims spread on social media as exaggerated and not supported by current forecasts.
All in all, starting July 6 France will experience a new, serious heatwave. The most likely high temperatures, however, lie between 37 and 41 degrees. Individual regions could reach somewhat higher local values – a nationwide heatwave with 45 degrees, however, does not appear likely based on current knowledge.
By Andreas M. Brucker