Heat and drought weigh on France's 2026 wheat harvest

Paris – 17/07/2026: France expects its 2026 soft wheat harvest to total around 32 million tonnes. This is according to the first estimate published on 15 July by Agreste, the statistical service of the Ministry of Agriculture. Compared with 2025, this would represent a decline of four percent. The main reason is lower yields per hectare after heat and water shortages stressed crops during a crucial growth phase.

The average soft wheat yield is currently estimated at 69.3 decitonnes per hectare. That is almost five decitonnes less than in 2025 and marks the fourth time since 2017 that yields have fallen below 70 decitonnes per hectare. A larger cultivated area was therefore unable to offset the decline. The figures remain an early forecast and may still change as harvesting work is completed.

Harvesting proceeded unusually early and rapidly in many parts of the country. According to Meteo-France, soils have increasingly dried out since the end of May due to the lack of significant rainfall and exceptionally high temperatures. On 15 July, soil moisture nationwide was at an exceptionally low level for such an early point in the summer. A large part of the southwest, as well as areas stretching from the Northern Alps to Alsace, were particularly affected.

The impact on crops varied considerably by region. The regional agricultural authority in Bourgogne-Franche-Comte had already pointed out in June that soft wheat and spring barley were particularly sensitive to heat during grain filling. Depending on the site, yields there were expected to be 10 to 20 percent below the average of the past five years.

Authorities in Hauts-de-France, an important grain-growing region, also point to major differences between plots. The regional expert body set the provisional average wheat yield forecast at 85 decitonnes per hectare in early July. At the same time, it stressed that sowing dates, soils, water availability and high temperatures at the end of the plant cycle could still significantly affect the results.

In addition to soft wheat, experts also expect declines in other crops. Based on current figures, France’s durum wheat harvest is estimated at 1.087 million tonnes, 16 percent less than in 2025. A significant drop is also expected for spring barley. Winter barley, by contrast, is likely to deliver higher volumes in many areas thanks to its greater resilience.

In view of the exceptionally early and intense heat, the Ministry of Agriculture had already announced support measures for farms. These include easing the use of certain fallow land as a feed resource and postponing planned farm inspections in particularly affected departments. For grain farms, the key question now is how the yield and quality of the last areas harvested will turn out.