The war over sea lanes hits Saudi Arabia’s oil exports

Jeddah – 23.07.2026: The war between the United States and Iran reached a new, particularly delicate dimension for the global economy overnight. Yemen’s Houthis said they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. According to the group, the tankers were the Encelia and Laylia, which allegedly violated a maritime blockade imposed by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities confirmed that the Encelia had been hit and caught fire at the bow. However, the information could not be fully independently verified early Thursday morning. Its political impact is nevertheless immediate. For the first time, not only the Persian Gulf but also Saudi Arabia’s western export route via the Red Sea is at the center of the conflict. The Houthis announced their blockade against Saudi ships on Monday. They justify it with Saudi attacks on Sanaa airport and place their actions in the context of the war against Iran. The movement controls large parts of northern and western Yemen, as well as sections of the coastline at the entrance to the Red Sea. In recent days, their threat alone has been enough to force tankers to turn back. Saudi Arabia had recently exported around four million barrels of crude oil per day via the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. This route had become all the more important for Riyadh because the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of globally traded oil passes in peacetime, has been fully or partially blocked since the start of the war on February 28. A second bottleneck now threatens: the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. It is the route to the Suez Canal; under normal circumstances, around 12% of global trade passes through it. For Europe, a lasting disruption would be doubly problematic. It would not only make crude oil and liquefied natural gas more expensive, but also lengthen the routes of container ships, which would have to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. This would result in higher insurance premiums, dwindling transport capacity, and additional inflationary pressure. Oil prices rose by more than 1.5% on Thursday to their highest level in more than six weeks. Washington responded with a new wave of strikes against targets in Iran and against the Houthis. A dangerous logic is thus becoming entrenched: military strikes are intended to secure maritime shipping, but at the same time they may encourage further attacks by the regional actors they are meant to deter. It will now be decisive whether Riyadh responds militarily and whether international naval forces can actually secure passage through Bab al-Mandab.