The War Over Sea Lanes Expands

Dubai – 25 July 2026: The conflict between the United States and Iran took on a new, particularly consequential dimension overnight: Not only the Strait of Hormuz, but also access to the Red Sea is becoming the scene of an escalating power struggle. This places two of the most important maritime chokepoints for energy and global trade under pressure at the same time. The consequences extend far beyond the Middle East.

According to the US military, the tanker M/T Lavine was rendered unable to maneuver in the Gulf of Oman after the vessel reportedly made repeated attempts to break through the American blockade of Iranian ports. The crew had reportedly been warned beforehand. At the same time, the US military continued its air strikes on Iranian targets. It was the 13th consecutive night of attacks. Iran, in turn, reported attacks on US positions in Kuwait and Bahrain; several explosive-laden drones were intercepted in Irbil in northern Iraq.

What is crucial, however, is the expansion at sea. The Houthi militia in Yemen, allied with Tehran, claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Another Saudi vessel suffered minor hull damage, according to state reports. Riyadh responded with strikes on Houthi positions in the port city of Hodeida. Washington is now threatening Tehran and the Houthis with a substantial military response.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was the transit route for around one fifth of the oil and gas traded globally by sea. Bab al-Mandab, the strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is no less sensitive: Around 12 percent of global trade and one quarter of global container traffic pass through it. Saudi Arabia had already diverted millions of barrels of oil per day by pipeline to the Red Sea in order to bypass Hormuz. If this alternative route also becomes unsafe, the market will lose a key safety mechanism.

Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel for the first time since May on Thursday and was back at around $96 on Friday. That is still significantly more than the roughly $72 before the start of the war. According to the International Maritime Organization, at least 6,000 seafarers are stranded aboard around 400 ships in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomacy remains visible, but there has been no discernible breakthrough. Oman and Pakistan are exploring contacts, while China is also pressing for talks. US President Donald Trump is keeping open the choice between expanding the attacks and reaching an agreement. It is precisely this indecision that makes the situation so dangerous for trade, insurers and governments: The military escalation is now being accompanied by a crisis in global transport routes.