Jean Jouzel: France’s heat and drought follow climate projections

Paris – 06.08.2026: According to paleoclimatologist Jean Jouzel, the heatwaves, parched soils and increased wildfire risk in France correspond to scientific projections that have been known for decades. The former vice-chair of the scientific advisory board of the IPCC said on Thursday to broadcaster franceinfo that the current situation was not a surprising deviation, but a predicted consequence of global warming.

Meteorological data support his assessment. Météo-France considers the heatwave from 17 to 30 June 2026 historic. It began unusually early, lasted a long time and reached an intensity in parts of France that had not been observed since national heat warnings were introduced in 2004. According to the weather service, June 2026 was the warmest June since its records began.

By the end of June, drought in the upper soil layers had already spread across mainland France and Corsica. Météo-France compared the situation with the particularly dry summers of 2022 and 2025. A lack of precipitation, exceptionally high temperatures and low humidity also increased the risk that vegetation fires could start and spread rapidly.

Jouzel points to a central finding of climate research: as the global average temperature rises, so does the likelihood of extreme heat periods. For France, this means that hot spells may begin earlier, last longer and more often coincide with water shortages. The combination of heat and drought places pressure on agriculture, water supplies, health protection and civil protection at the same time.

Authorities have strengthened their preparations over the course of the summer. At the beginning of July, the Environment Ministry called for nationwide mobilization against the consequences of heat and drought and highlighted the prevention of forest and vegetation fires. In the Val-d’Oise department, the prefecture ordered restrictions on water use for several catchment areas on 21 July. It cited the continuing drought as the reason.

The consequences are also immediate for the healthcare system. Santé publique France had already classified the early heat period as exceptional. During the intense phase in June, the highest warning level was temporarily in force in dozens of departments. Older people, infants, people with chronic illnesses and outdoor workers are particularly at risk. In densely built-up cities, limited nighttime cooling exacerbates the strain.

Jouzel’s assessment therefore directly concerns France’s adaptation policy. Warning systems, municipal heat plans and water restrictions are established, but they are unlikely to be sufficient on their own. Recurring extreme weather events increase the need for lasting building protection, effective wildfire prevention, climate-adapted urban planning and more economical water use. The basis for this debate is the record temperatures of June and soil drought continuing into August.