Declining Birth Rates Worsen Pension System Deficit in France

Paris – 09.06.2026: Demographic developments in France are presenting increasing challenges to the pension system. According to the latest report from the Conseil d’orientation des retraites (COR), the deficit in the pension system is expected to continue rising in the coming years. The main cause is the persistently declining birth rate, which leads to a reduction in contributors and thereby complicates pension financing.

In 2025, France registered 645,000 live births – a 2.1 percent decrease compared to the previous year. This downward trend has been ongoing since 2015 and has accelerated in recent years. The so-called cyclical fertility rate reached its lowest value since 1917 in 2025, at 1.56 children per woman.

At the same time, the number of deaths increased by 1.5 percent to 651,000, partly due to a severe flu season during the year. The average life expectancy at birth currently stands at 85.9 years for women and 80.3 years for men. As a result, the older population group is steadily growing: the proportion of people aged over 65 now amounts to 22 percent.

This development leads to a negative natural population growth of 6,000 persons in 2025, meaning more people died than were born. The aging population further increases pressure on the pension system, as more retirees face a comparatively smaller number of employed contributors.

The COR has accordingly adjusted its financial forecasts. The decline in birth rates reduces the number of contributors, significantly increasing the deficit in the pension system over the next decades. This puts the sustainability of pension financing under growing pressure.

Against this backdrop, political pressure to act is increasing. To ensure the long-term stability of the pension system, reforms are likely inevitable. Measures under discussion include raising the retirement age, changing contribution assessments, or stronger incentives to increase the birth rate.

The current demographic trends highlight the urgency of a comprehensive review of French pension policy. Policymakers must find solutions that secure financial sustainability while meeting the needs of an aging society. In this process, involving various social groups and labor market stakeholders plays an important role in enabling socially acceptable and practical reforms.

Overall, it is evident that demographic change in France constitutes one of the central challenges for the social system. The coming years will largely determine how the pension system can respond to these changes.