Presidential election 2027: the battle for second place begins

Paris – 16 July 2026: The 2027 French presidential election is taking shape, even though the official list of candidates has not yet been finalized. The first round will take place on 18 April 2027, the second on 2 May. Marine Le Pen is at the center of this early campaign. The president of the Rassemblement National parliamentary group announced her candidacy after the appeal ruling of 7 July.

The appeals chamber of the Paris court confirmed her conviction in the European parliamentary assistants case, but reduced the duration of the immediately applicable ineligibility period. The 45-month sentence includes 30 months suspended; the time already served since 31 March 2025 was taken into account. Le Pen’s candidacy is therefore once again legally possible, subject to further appeals.

An Elabe poll published on 11 July puts Le Pen at between 34 and 35.5% of first-round voting intentions, depending on the scenarios tested. This represents a lead, but not an early decision on the outcome of the election. The decisive question will rather be who follows her into the second round and can then mobilize enough voters from the fragmented center, the moderate right and the left.

In the centrist camp, Édouard Philippe remains the strongest candidate for now. The mayor of Le Havre receives between 16.5 and 19% in the survey. Gabriel Attal follows with 13.5 to 15.5%. Both embody different paths away from Emmanuel Macron’s political legacy: Philippe relies on a bourgeois-conservative profile, Attal on the renewal of the presidential center.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon also retains his position as the strongest figure on the left outside social democracy. He is credited with 14.5 to 16%. However, his strength within the former left-wing electoral bloc is not yet enough to secure him a clear lead in the race for second place. The poll instead shows a tight triangle between Philippe, Attal and Mélenchon, whose order depends on their respective candidacies.

The Socialists are therefore trying to institutionally limit their fragmentation. Their members have chosen to organize a party-aligned primary in October. Philippe Brun and Ségolène Royal have announced their participation; Raphaël Glucksmann is still considering it. Olivier Faure is also regarded as a possible candidate. The central strategic question is therefore not only who will face Le Pen, but also whether the center and the moderate left can unite in time around a credible alternative.