Hormuz becomes the global economy’s bottleneck once again

Dubai – July 14, 2026: The Strait of Hormuz has once again become the most dangerous bottleneck in the global economy. Following new mutual missile and drone attacks, the United States announced a blockade of Iranian vessels in the Gulf. President Donald Trump also stated that Washington would keep the strait open but demand a 20% fee for cargo transport. According to the U.S. military command responsible for the Middle East, the new measure is scheduled to begin on Tuesday at 20:00 GMT, or 22:00 Paris time. The military conflict is thus increasingly turning into a dispute over control of a waterway on which energy supplies, trade, and the insurance industry depend far beyond the region. Before the war, around 20% of globally traded seaborne hydrocarbons passed through this route between Iran and Oman. Shipping companies are now avoiding the route whenever possible. According to Marine Traffic data, vessel movements fell by 52% between July 10 and 12. Tankers and cargo ships, as well as their insurers, are factoring in not only the risk of attack but also uncertainty over which side can enforce transit rules and has the authority to do so. Tehran also claims the right to control traffic and has proposed joint regulations with Oman. This once again gives the government in Muscat a small diplomatic role but an essential practical one. The International Maritime Organization has confirmed at least 46 attacks targeting international shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began on February 28. This figure makes clear that the current situation cannot be interpreted as a mere show of force. For Gulf states, the ability to reliably export or import oil, liquefied gas, and consumer goods is at stake. For Europe and Asia, energy prices, supply chains, and the predictability of global trade are at stake. The U.S. demand for transit fees is particularly sensitive politically. It combines a security promise to keep the route open with a demand for monetary compensation. Both legally and practically, this demand is likely to become controversial quickly. What matters first is the more sobering fact: as long as both sides claim control over Hormuz and back it militarily, the strait is unlikely to be considered a reliable route for many merchant vessels, even if it is not completely closed. That alone is enough for the economic repercussions to be felt worldwide.