Marine Le Pen has redefined her political future. After the appeals verdict in the case concerning the misappropriation of funds from the European Parliament, the leader of the Rassemblement National announced she would file an appeal with the Cour de cassation. At the same time she ended months of speculation about her ambitions with an unambiguous statement: she will run in the 2027 presidential election. This shifts the focus of French domestic politics again to the confrontation between the judiciary and politics — a field of tension that is likely to significantly shape the upcoming campaign.
Appeals court upholds conviction
The appeals court upheld the conviction against Marine Le Pen for the abusive use of funds from the European Parliament. At the core is the long-running case against several members of the Rassemblement National accused of having employed parliamentary assistants of the European Parliament in fact for party work in France.
While the appellate judges confirmed Le Pen’s criminal responsibility, they significantly softened the consequences of the first-instance verdict. The imposed prison sentence was partly scheduled to be served under electronic monitoring. At the same time the period of ineligibility to stand for office was reduced. As things stand, Marine Le Pen remains in principle eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election.
This makes the appeals ruling markedly different from the political consequences that had been feared after the first-instance judgment. The immediate danger of being excluded from the race for the Élysée Palace no longer exists for the time being.
Appeal to the Cour de cassation as the next step
Le Pen announced immediately after the ruling that she would appeal to the Cour de cassation. The highest French court does not decide on the facts of the case but reviews solely whether the law was applied correctly and whether the procedure met legal requirements.
According to the politician, the filed cassation appeal initially leads to certain enforcement measures of the appeals judgment being suspended. This notably includes the planned electronic monitoring. Le Pen therefore stated that she will run her presidential campaign without an electronic ankle bracelet.
Whether the Cour de cassation confirms the appeals judgment or refers the case back to another appellate court for retrial remains open. In practice, cassation proceedings can take several months, so the legal uncertainty is likely to continue to accompany the political calendar.
Return to the leadership of the Rassemblement National
With her official candidacy, Marine Le Pen clearly reassumes the leadership role within the Rassemblement National for the 2027 presidential election. In recent months it had remained unclear whether party chairman Jordan Bardella would need to be prepared as a substitute candidate given the legal risks.
Those speculations are likely to be ended for now. Bardella remains the party’s most important political face alongside Le Pen, but he moves back into a secondary role. The long-time party leader also made clear that she would appoint Bardella as Prime Minister in the event of an electoral victory. This signals continuity within the party leadership while attempting to bridge the different generations of the Rassemblement National.
For the party, this means strategic clarity. For years, its campaign organization has been built around Marine Le Pen’s presidential candidacy. A last-minute change would have entailed significant organizational and communication risks.
A campaign under legal reservation
Despite the new political clarity, the legal situation remains complex. If the Cour de cassation confirms the appeals judgment or assesses certain legal questions differently, the legal framework could change again. A quashing with a subsequent new appellate trial would also be possible.
This uncertainty is likely to accompany the presidential campaign. While Le Pen tries to portray the case as a political battle against her opponents, her critics point to the criminal responsibility established in the appeals proceedings. The judiciary will thus inevitably become part of the political debate.
France is therefore facing a constellation that is unusual in its intensity. Although previous presidential candidates have undergone legal proceedings — such as François Fillon or Nicolas Sarkozy — it is rare for a highest-court procedure to coincide so closely in time with the preparation for a presidential election.
Impact on the 2027 presidential election
The outlook for the 2027 election therefore remains open. Marine Le Pen still counts among the most promising candidates in the political spectrum. Over several electoral cycles the Rassemblement National has been able to steadily expand its voter base and has particularly established itself in rural regions as well as among workers and employees.
At the same time, the legal dimension will accompany the campaign like few other domestic issues. For her supporters, the proceedings could reinforce the impression of political persecution. For her opponents, it remains proof that leading politicians are subject to the rule of law.
Regardless of the outcome of the cassation appeal, it is already clear that the 2027 presidential campaign will not revolve solely around migration, purchasing power, or security. Equally formative is likely to be the question of what role the judiciary and the rule of law play in political competition and how far court decisions can influence the democratic selection of candidates.
With her official candidacy, Marine Le Pen has set the political tempo for the coming months. Whether she can actually contest the presidency again will now be decided not only at the ballot box but also in France’s highest court.
Author: P. Tiko