New heatwave possible from early July: Météo-France sees increased risk of third episode

Paris – 02.07.2026: After a brief spell of milder temperatures, France and its authorities are once again preparing for a pronounced period of heat. According to analyses by Météo‑France, the probability is rising significantly that very high values will occur nationwide in the week starting July 6, 2026. Models consider a third heat sequence within a few weeks, although intensity and exact extent can still vary.

Synoptically, a powerful Azores high could move eastward and bring hot, dry air from North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula to France. Depending on the position of the high-pressure ridge, daytime highs well above 35 °C are possible in lowland areas in places; in some scenarios local values around 40 °C are also discussed. Particularly affected could be the south, the Mediterranean region, Corsica as well as parts of the east and the pre-Alps. In the greater Paris area, values beyond the 30-degree mark are again realistic according to current knowledge.

Meteorological services also emphasize the remaining uncertainties. Small shifts in pressure systems can cause large regional differences in peak values and tropical nights. Météo‑France will update warning maps and levels daily; activations of the national heat protection plan are at the discretion of the prefectures. Municipalities are asked to keep cooling rooms available, check drinking water points and organize care services for vulnerable groups.

Health authorities remind that older people, infants, pregnant women, the chronically ill, and employees working outdoors are particularly at risk. Recommended are regular drinking, light meals, cooling living spaces by consistently airing them at night and in the morning, avoiding physical exertion during the hottest part of the day, and seeking shady or air-conditioned places. Neighbors and relatives should actively contact people at risk.

Background conditions can amplify heat stress: persistent soil and shallow-water drought promote high daytime temperatures, while heated urban areas with little greenery tend to prolonged tropical nights. Already warmed sea surface temperatures in the western Mediterranean can favor the advection of very warm air masses, but are not a sufficient indicator for local peaks.

Residents are asked to closely follow regional guidance from Météo‑France and the responsible health services and to observe advice regarding drinking water, public transport cooling rooms and event adjustments. Whether and where official heat warning levels will apply will likely be decided shortly before the expected start of the episode based on upcoming model runs.