2027 presidential election: the battle for second place begins

Paris – 16 July 2026: The 2027 French presidential election is beginning to take shape, although the official list of candidates has not yet been finalized. The first round will be held on 18 April 2027 and the second round on 2 May. At the center of the early campaign is Marine Le Pen. The president of the Rassemblement National parliamentary group announced her candidacy following the appeal ruling of 7 July.

The appeals chamber of the Paris court upheld her conviction in the case involving European parliamentary assistants, but reduced the duration of her immediate disqualification. The 45-month sentence includes 30 months suspended; time served since 31 March 2025 was taken into account. This makes Le Pen’s candidacy legally possible again, subject to further legal appeals.

An Elabe poll published on 11 July places Le Pen, depending on the configuration analyzed, between 34 and 35.5 percent of first-round voting intentions. This is an advantage, but not an early decision on the election result. The key factor will be who follows her into the second round and can mobilize enough voters from the fragmented center, the moderate right, and the left.

In the centrist bloc, Edouard Philippe remains the strongest candidate for now. The mayor of Le Havre reaches between 16.5 and 19 percent in the poll. Gabriel Attal follows with between 13.5 and 15.5 percent. Both represent different paths away from Emmanuel Macron’s political legacy: Philippe is betting on a liberal-conservative profile, while Attal is focused on renewing the presidential center.

Jean-Luc Melenchon meanwhile maintains his position as the strongest figure on the left outside social democracy. He is polling between 14.5 and 16 percent. However, his strength within the former left-wing voter bloc has so far not been enough to secure a clear advantage in the race for second place. The poll instead shows a close triangle between Philippe, Attal, and Melenchon, whose order depends on the respective candidacies.

The Socialists are therefore trying to limit their fragmentation institutionally. Their members have decided to hold party-linked primaries in October. Philippe Brun and Segolene Royal have announced their participation; Raphael Glucksmann is still considering it. Olivier Faure is also regarded as a possible candidate. The central strategic question is therefore not only who will challenge Le Pen, but whether the center and moderate left can unite a credible alternative in time.