SpaceX Rocket Stage Set to Impact the Moon on August 5

Paris – 04 August 2026: A spent upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to impact the Moon on August 5 at around 06:35 UTC. In Paris, it will then be 08:35. According to the available orbital forecasts, the object will strike near Einstein Crater at the western edge of the Moon’s visible hemisphere. The collision is unplanned; it will occur more than a year and a half after the rocket’s launch.

The Falcon 9 had launched two commercial lunar landers into space in January 2025. Its upper stage subsequently remained in an orbit within the Earth-Moon system. Calculations indicate that it will now hit the surface at around 2.4 kilometers per second. The component, which weighs several tonnes, is likely to leave a crater and eject material from the lunar soil.

Models suggest that a crater roughly 40 meters in diameter can be expected. Its actual size and shape will, however, depend on the stage’s mass, the impact angle and the nature of the ground. The flash of light, along with the cloud of dust and debris, could briefly be detected by instruments in space and possibly also by telescopes on Earth. The event will not be visible to the naked eye.

For researchers, the unintended impact offers a rare opportunity to test measurement methods under real conditions. They plan to study the flash of light, the spread of ejected material and possible seismic signatures. The data could help pinpoint impacts on the Moon more precisely and assess over what distances dust and smaller fragments are transported.

This is of practical interest for the further exploration of the Moon. Near future infrastructure, impacting objects could release dust, rock and debris. This raises questions about appropriate safety distances and observation networks for landers, instruments and potential sites for human presence. The upcoming impact therefore serves as a test case for monitoring artificial objects in cislunar space.

According to available assessments, the upper stage poses no danger to Earth. Unlike planned scientific impacts, space agencies have not specifically determined either its trajectory or the observation conditions. The rocket component was left behind after the mission and is no longer actively controlled.

The incident therefore also touches on the disposal of upper stages during missions beyond Earth orbit. In low Earth orbit, such components are often brought back through controlled re-entry. Flights to the Moon, however, follow different profiles and requirements. The impact is thus both a scientific opportunity and an unintended consequence of growing traffic in the Earth-Moon system.