Study: Imported emissions significantly curb France’s decarbonization progress

Paris – 02.07.2026: A recent analysis by the business-oriented institute Rexecode, which was widely picked up in France on Thursday, concludes that CO2 emissions associated with imports offset a substantial portion of the emissions reductions achieved domestically. The basis is the consumption-based emissions balance, which takes into account not only greenhouse gases emitted in France but also those caused abroad that are attributable to domestic consumption.

According to the authors, this consumption balance is noticeably higher than territorially measured emissions. A major driver are goods with high CO2 intensity produced outside the EU. Imports from China in particular, Rexecode says, make a significant contribution to the demand-based balance. The study points to methodological uncertainties and data dependencies but considers the magnitudes politically relevant because they put domestic decarbonization progress into perspective.

Rexecode advocates for a tighter coupling of climate targets with industrial and trade policy. Proposals include reindustrialization with lower-emission production in France, targeted investment incentives for climate-friendly technologies, and requirements for transparency and product declaration along international supply chains. The aim is to strengthen value creation with a lower CO2 footprint in the country without undermining competitiveness.

The findings come at a time when Paris is preparing the third energy programming plan (PPE 3) and aims to decarbonize power generation. Government agencies point to the planned expansion of electrification in industry, transport and heating as well as efficiency measures. According to Rexecode, however, the effect risks evaporating if France continues to import emissions-intensive intermediate goods on a large scale and thereby indirectly re-buys part of its territorial savings.

At the European level, the CO2 border adjustment mechanism (MACF), being introduced step by step since 2026, creates incentives to price emissions at the border in selected sectors. Critics of Rexecode’s position consider the EU framework sufficient, provided it is implemented and extended consistently. The institute nonetheless sees a need for additional national instruments: more precise product data, accompanying support programs for energy-intensive industries in the transition to climate-friendly processes, and an acceleration of permitting for industrial and grid infrastructure.

The analysis increases pressure on the government and parliament not to measure progress solely by territorial inventories. What matters is whether consumption and import patterns are compatible with climate targets. Concrete additional measures beyond existing plans have so far only been hinted at sporadically by official sources. The political debate is therefore increasingly about how reindustrialization, trade and climate protection can be aligned so that emissions relocation is reduced and overall economic goals are achieved.