The War Over the Strait of Hormuz Enters a New, Dangerous Phase

Tehran – 22 July 2026: The military confrontation between the United States and Iran entered a new stage of sustained conflict overnight into Wednesday. According to the US military, the eleventh consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets came to an end. Washington says the operations are intended to weaken Iran’s military capabilities and restore security for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran continues to respond with attacks on American bases and targets belonging to US allies in the region. A crisis initially described as a dispute over deterrence and sea lanes has thus become an open war of attrition. At its center is the narrow strait between Iran and Oman, through which a substantial share of the global oil trade passes. The American side says it is trying to enforce and at the same time contain the blockade established by Iran. US Central Command said on Tuesday that it had diverted eight merchant vessels and rendered another unable to maneuver. The Revolutionary Guards, for their part, claimed responsibility for attacks on ships in the waterway. Each individual incident increases the risk that commercial shipping, military deterrence and regional alliance politics can no longer be separated from one another. The political cost is already visible. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put US war costs to date at $37.5 billion. The US military has now reported three soldiers killed; 413 wounded had already been recorded on 6 July. Such figures are changing the domestic political situation in Washington because they raise the question of whether the government is still conducting a limited operation or has already become embroiled in a war with no clear endpoint. For Tehran, the benefit of its current strategy apparently does not lie in a rapid military breakthrough. With comparatively limited means, Iran can raise the costs for its adversary, put pressure on the Gulf states and perpetuate uncertainty in energy markets. The leadership is thus betting on time and on the political fatigue of its opponents. Diplomatic channels are not closed, but they are overshadowed by the attacks. The framework agreed in June under Qatari and Pakistani mediation has effectively been devalued. The decisive question now will be whether Washington and Tehran can still find a formula that guarantees free passage without either side having to capitulate publicly. Otherwise, the Strait of Hormuz risks taking on a role that extends far beyond the Persian Gulf: as a permanent lever against the stability of the global economy.