IEA Lowers Forecast for Global Oil Demand in 2026 Due to Conflicts in the Middle East

Paris – 17.06.2026: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 1.1 million barrels per day. This adjustment is nearly three times higher than the reduction expected in May and reflects the ongoing impacts of conflicts in the Middle East.

The IEA now predicts an average decline in global oil demand of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, compared to a previous growth of 0.2 million barrels per day. This revision is based on the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil transport.

In April 2026, global oil production recorded a further decline of 1.8 million barrels per day to 95.1 million barrels per day. This resulted in a cumulative production loss of 12.8 million barrels per day since February. The IEA expects oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to resume in the third quarter of 2026 but only return to pre-war levels by early 2027.

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led to significant disruptions in oil supply, negatively impacting global oil stockpiles. The IEA forecasts that oil inventories in the member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December, representing the lowest level since at least 2003.

These developments not only affect oil prices but also the global economy. The IEA warns of a sustained oil market deficit until the fourth quarter of 2026, as production in the Gulf states has sharply declined due to the conflict.

The IEA emphasizes the need for international cooperation to restore stability to global energy markets and avoid future supply bottlenecks. The organization recommends developing alternative transport routes and increasing energy efficiency to reduce dependence on geopolitically unstable regions.

Given the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the development of global oil demand and supply remains a critical factor for worldwide economic stability. The IEA will continue to closely monitor the situation and adjust its forecasts accordingly.