The conflict over Hormuz is turning into a regional theatre of war

Dubai – 18 July 2026: The conflict between the United States and Iran reached a new, dangerous level overnight into Saturday. US Central Command reported the seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets. According to its information, intelligence facilities, military logistics, underground weapons depots and maritime capabilities were hit. Iran again responded with missile and drone strikes on US facilities and surrounding areas. Kuwait reported air defence measures against missiles and drones, Jordan said it intercepted Iranian missiles, and air-raid sirens also sounded in Bahrain.

Thus, the struggle for the Strait of Hormuz has definitively ceased to be merely a confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Arab neighbouring states, which for decades have also based their security architecture on the American military presence, are being drawn ever deeper into a war they can neither control nor win politically. For Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, every intercepted missile is therefore more than a military event: it increases domestic political pressure to redefine their own role in the regional struggle for power.

The Strait of Hormuz is the real lever in this regard. The narrow passage between Iran and Oman connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and is among the most important strategic routes for oil, liquefied gas and container shipping. Even uncertainty about safe passage raises insurance costs, lengthens supply routes and burdens energy importers from Europe to East Asia. A prolonged blockade or de facto militarisation of the route would have consequences far beyond the Middle East.

Politically, the situation is particularly unfavourable because neither side is showing a simple way out. The United States seeks to weaken Iranian maritime and military capabilities without allowing itself to be drawn into an open ground war. Tehran, for its part, can hardly credibly maintain its regional deterrence if strikes on its own territory remain unanswered. The immediate danger lies less in a single spectacular escalation than in the routine of repeated strikes, miscalculations and counterstrikes.

For Europe, this conflict comes with a double cost. It concerns the security of trade routes and energy supplies, as well as already fragile diplomacy in the Middle East. The question this morning is therefore not whether shipping through Hormuz will be free again. It is what political agreement could be strong enough to silence the weapons there again at all.