IEA reduces world oil demand forecast for 2026 due to conflicts in the Middle East

Paris – 17.06.2026: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 1.1 million barrels per day. This revision is nearly triple the reduction predicted in May and reflects the ongoing effects of conflicts in the Middle East.

The IEA now expects an average decline in global oil demand of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, compared to a previous growth of 0.2 million barrels per day. This revision is based on the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for oil transportation.

In April 2026, global oil production recorded a further decline of 1.8 million barrels per day, reaching 95.1 million barrels per day. This resulted in a cumulative production loss of 12.8 million barrels per day since February. The IEA expects oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz to resume in the third quarter of 2026, but to return to pre-war levels only at the beginning of 2027.

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have caused significant disruptions in oil supply, negatively impacting global oil reserves. The IEA anticipates that oil stocks in the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will fall to about 2.3 billion barrels by December, the lowest level at least since 2003.

These developments affect not only oil prices but also the global economy. The IEA warns of a persistent oil market deficit until the fourth quarter of 2026, as production in Gulf countries has sharply decreased due to the conflict.

The IEA emphasizes the need for international cooperation to restore stability to global energy markets and prevent future supply shortages. The organization recommends developing alternative transportation routes and increasing energy efficiency to reduce dependency on geopolitically unstable regions.

In light of current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the evolution of global oil demand and supply remains a critical factor for global economic stability. The IEA will continue to closely monitor the situation and adjust its forecasts accordingly.

The IEA emphasizes the need for international cooperation to restore stability to global energy markets and prevent future supply shortages. The organization recommends developing alternative transportation routes and increasing energy efficiency to reduce dependency on geopolitically unstable regions.

In light of current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the evolution of global oil demand and supply remains a critical factor for global economic stability. The IEA will continue to closely monitor the situation and adjust its forecasts accordingly.