Appeal verdict on July 7: Does Marine Le Pen face ineligibility — and could Jordan Bardella move up?

Paris – 05.07.2026: On July 7 the Cour d’appel de Paris intends to announce its verdict in the appeal proceedings regarding the alleged misappropriation of EU parliamentary funds in the orbit of the Rassemblement national. In the first-instance judgment of 31.03.2025 Marine Le Pen was found guilty and given a sentence that can include several years of ineligibility. The appeal decision is decisive for her political future and has been confirmed as scheduled by several newsrooms and judicial circles.

There is much at stake politically: if the appeal confirms the ineligibility, Le Pen would likely be excluded from running in the 2027 presidential election. In that scenario Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement national, would likely come more to the fore. The party has prepared corresponding procedures internally to swiftly organize the transition in strategic communication and the question of candidacy in the event of a negative ruling. Observers point out that the RN has developed campaign modules for both paths — Le Pen or Bardella.

Opponents of the RN often consider Bardella the easier opponent. This is explained by his so far less polarizing profile and by programmatic nuances, for example on economic and social issues. Analyses of his course and of internal debates in the RN point to differences from Le Pen’s established line. At the same time, not every leader within the party is convinced that Bardella would bear the strains of a long presidential campaign equally. Such reservations could — depending on the verdict — immediately influence the RN’s campaign architecture.

Legally, the key question is from when and to what extent a possible ineligibility would take effect. Questions of enforcement, potential suspensions and the calculation of deadlines are complex and could lead to further legal remedies. Even without final clarification, a confirmed appeal judgment would nevertheless change political planning in the short term: parties beyond the RN would have to adjust their campaign strategies, review alliances and recalibrate thematic priorities.

July 7 thus marks a milestone in the presidential lead-up. Regardless of the outcome, the RN’s speed of reaction, the unity of its leadership and the positioning of the other camps in the days after the verdict will provide key indications of how the field for 2027 will be ordered. Media appearances, possible personnel decisions and initial poll movements should provide short-term information as to whether Bardella actually becomes the dominant figure — or whether Le Pen remains politically capable of acting.