The conflict around Hormuz is becoming a regional theatre of war

Dubai – 18.07.2026: The conflict between the United States and Iran entered a new, dangerous phase overnight from Friday to Saturday. U.S. Central Command reported the seventh consecutive night of attacks on Iranian targets. According to the report, reconnaissance facilities, military logistics, underground weapons depots and maritime capabilities were hit. Iran again responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. installations and their regional surroundings. Kuwait reported defensive measures against projectiles and drones, Jordan said it intercepted Iranian missiles; air raid sirens also sounded in Bahrain.

The struggle over the Strait of Hormuz is therefore definitively no longer solely a confrontation between Washington and Tehran. The Arab neighboring countries, which have based their security architecture partly on the U.S. military presence for decades, are becoming more deeply involved in a war they can neither control nor politically win. For Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, every intercepted missile is therefore more than a military event: it increases domestic pressure to redefine their own role in the regional power struggle.

The Strait of Hormuz is the actual lever in this. The narrow passage between Iran and Oman connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and is among the strategically most important routes for oil, liquefied natural gas and container shipping. Uncertainty alone over safe passage makes insurance more expensive, lengthens supply routes and burdens energy importers from Europe to East Asia. A permanent blockade or the effective militarization of the route would therefore have consequences reaching far beyond the Middle East.

Politically, the situation is particularly difficult because neither side appears to see an easy way out. The United States wants to weaken Iranian maritime and military capabilities without being drawn into an open ground war. Tehran, for its part, can hardly maintain its regional deterrence credibly if attacks on its own territory go unanswered. The immediate danger lies less in an isolated spectacular escalation than in the routine of recurring attacks, miscalculations and counterattacks.

For Europe, this is a conflict with a double cost. It affects both the security of trade routes and energy supplies, as well as the already fragile diplomacy in the Middle East. The question this morning is therefore not whether Hormuz will once again be freely navigable. It is what political agreement could be strong enough to make the weapons fall silent there at all.