AIE Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast Due to Middle East Conflict

Paris – June 17, 2026: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 1.1 million barrels per day. This adjustment is nearly three times the reduction predicted in May and reflects the impact of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

The IEA now expects global oil demand to decline by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, contrasting with the previously anticipated growth of 200,000 barrels per day. This revision is based on the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil transportation.

In April 2026, global oil production decreased by 1.8 million barrels per day to reach 95.1 million barrels. This has resulted in a cumulative production loss of 12.8 million barrels per day since February. The IEA expects oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz to resume in the third quarter of 2026, but full recovery to pre-war levels is not expected until early 2027.

Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have caused severe disruptions in oil supply, negatively affecting global oil inventories. The IEA forecasts that oil stocks in OECD member countries will decline to approximately 2.3 billion barrels by December, the lowest level since at least 2003.

This situation affects not only oil prices but also the global economy. The IEA warns of persistent supply shortages in the oil market through the fourth quarter of 2026, due to significant production declines in the Gulf region caused by the conflict.

The IEA emphasizes the need for international cooperation to restore stability in the global energy market and to prevent future supply bottlenecks. The organization recommends developing alternative transport routes and improving energy efficiency to reduce dependence on geopolitically unstable regions.

Given the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the trends in global oil demand and supply remain a critical factor for global economic stability. The IEA will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust its forecasts accordingly.

The IEA emphasizes the need for international cooperation to restore stability in the global energy market and to prevent future supply bottlenecks. The organization recommends developing alternative transport routes and improving energy efficiency to reduce dependence on geopolitically unstable regions.

Given the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the trends in global oil demand and supply remain a critical factor for global economic stability. The IEA will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust its forecasts accordingly.