The conflict over Hormuz is becoming a regional theatre of war

Dubai – 18/07/2026: The conflict between the United States and Iran crossed a new and dangerous threshold on Saturday night. U.S. Central Command reported the seventh consecutive night of attacks against Iranian targets. Reconnaissance facilities, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons depots and maritime capabilities were reportedly struck. Iran again responded with missile and drone attacks against U.S. facilities and their regional surroundings. Kuwait reported defensive measures against projectiles and drones, while Jordan said it had intercepted Iranian missiles; air raid sirens also sounded in Bahrain.

Thus, the struggle for the Strait of Hormuz is definitively no longer merely a confrontation between Washington and Tehran. The neighboring Arab states, which have based their security architecture for decades in particular on the U.S. military presence, are being drawn further into a war they can neither control nor win politically. For Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, every intercepted missile is therefore more than a military event: it increases domestic pressure to redefine their own role in the regional struggle for power.

The Strait of Hormuz is the real lever of this crisis. This narrow passage between Iran and Oman connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and is among the most strategic routes for oil, liquefied natural gas and container shipping. Mere uncertainty about the security of transit already raises insurance costs, lengthens supply routes and weighs on energy importers from Europe to East Asia. A lasting blockade or the de facto militarization of this route would therefore have consequences far beyond the Middle East.

Politically, the situation is particularly thorny, as no side appears to see a simple way out. The United States wants to weaken Iran’s naval and military capabilities without being drawn into an open ground war. Tehran, for its part, can hardly credibly maintain its regional deterrence if attacks on its own territory go unanswered. The immediate danger lies less in an isolated spectacular escalation than in the routine of recurring strikes, miscalculations and counterattacks.

For Europe, this conflict comes with a double cost. It concerns both the security of trade routes and energy supplies, as well as the already fragile diplomacy in the Middle East. This morning’s question is therefore not whether Hormuz will become freely navigable again. It is what political agreement could be strong enough for the weapons to fall silent there once more.